Sunday April 3, 2022
For 15 years, African soldiers have rotated through Somalia
as part of a 20,000-strong force mandated by the United Nations to protect the
fragile central government from an Islamist insurgency.
But the mission is winding up, with a transitional force
given less than two years to hand over security responsibilities to Somalia's
national army and withdraw from the troubled country. Will it work?
- What is AMISOM? -
Created in 2007 by the UN Security Council, the African
Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was tasked with fighting the Al-Shabaab
militants bent on overthrowing the foreign-backed government in Mogadishu.
Drawn from across Africa, the mission drove Al-Shabaab out
of Mogadishu in 2011, creating enough stability for government and federal
agencies to take shape, and two rounds of elections to be held.
"AMISOM played a part in securing and providing a
conducive environment for politics and for economic activity," said Samira
Gaid, executive director of the Hiraal Institute, a Somalia-based security
think tank.
But after the early gains, the mission has mainly been on
the defensive.
"There was an opportunity in 2014, 2015, to sustain the
offensive and have the upper hand against Al-Shabaab... That opportunity was
not taken," Gaid said.
Unable to rely on Somalia's poorly-trained and -equipped
national army, AMISOM resorted to holding its positions as Al-Shabaab gained
ground in rural areas and regrouped to launch deadly attacks across the
country.
- Is it popular? -
Many of AMISOM's biggest troop contributors -- such as
Uganda, Kenya and Burundi -- are majority Christian and Al-Shabaab has tried to
paint them as "crusaders" seeking to occupy Muslim lands.
Accusations of rape and murder levelled at AMISOM soldiers
furthered a level of distrust about the foreign force in Somalia.
The central government has also accused some countries --
notably Kenya, with whom relations are tense -- of using the mission to meddle
in Somalia's affairs.
Mogadishu has never hidden its desire to regain control over
its own security.
But AMISOM remains indispensable for securing strategic
assets and supply routes in a country where Al-Shabaab maintains the capacity
to launch frequent and deadly attacks.
"AMISOM was stuck in a status quo where it wasn't
making new progress, but taking it out also would mean a reversal of
progress," said Omar Mahmood, a Somalia analyst at the International
Crisis Group think tank.
- What comes next? -
The UN Security Council voted Thursday to replace AMISOM
with the AU Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).
ATMIS has a more offensive remit than its predecessor, and
calls for security to be assumed by Somalia's army and police force by the end
of 2024.
Somalia's government on Friday said it welcomed the decision
and was "committed to ensure the transfer of responsibility of security
from ATMIS to the Somali security forces."
Over that time, troops should be gradually withdrawn in four
distinct phases coinciding with major ground operations against Al-Shabaab.
Analysts doubt whether the timetable will be kept -- AMISOM
was initially mandated for six months, and lasted 15 years.
"We've seen these same timelines time and time again...
those timelines are still contingent on ground conditions, and that's been the
situation for years," said Mahmood.
There is no big difference between this mission and the
last, Gaid said.
"You have the word 'transition' which provides hope...
to donors that they are coming to the end of paying for this expensive
mission," she said.
"It also gives hope to (the) Somali side that AMISOM is
on its last legs."
ATMIS should prioritise training and equipping Somali forces
and investing in security infrastructure, she added.
- Can it succeed? -
Analysts say progress on security cannot be achieved while
the country is stuck in political deadlock.
Elections are more than a year overdue and the process
towards completing the vote for parliament, which will in turn choose a
president, has been hobbled by power struggles at the highest level of
government and feuds with some states.
The deadlines set by ATMIS are optimistic considering the
uncertainty surrounding the "incredibly divisive" election process,
Mahmood said.
"Reconciliation is a prerequisite in order to
sustainably implement some of the security dynamics," he said.
Collaboration between Mogadishu and Somalia's federal states
on security would also be essential to achieve these outcomes -- trust that in
some cases is nonexistent.
Gaid said handing over security to Somalia would take
"at best five years, maybe 10".