by Guled Ahmed
Wednesday May 4, 2022
On Thursday, Somalia’s lower house elected former Minister
of Commerce Adan Madobe as the new speaker. He won decisively with 64 percent
of the vote from the 275 new members of the Lower House and was sworn in on
April 14, 2022.
This comes after more than a year’s worth of attempts by the
former President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also known as (Farmaajo), to delay
the election process, including two failed coups. Though Madobe’s ascent to the
presidency was a major milestone, it came at a high price as political violence
displaced tens of thousands across various regions, most notably in the
capital, Mogadishu. The lengthy process left outside partners such as the EU
and the United States fatigue as they issued toothless sanctions and visa bans
as punishment to Farmaajo. Now, after the swearing-in of the new parliament,
Somalia is at a crossroads with the upcoming presidential election. The last
mile of the election demands hands-on management from the United States and the
EU to avoid the collapse of the Somali state.
The Root Cause
The election’s postponement resulted from Farmaajo’s passage
of universal suffrage, also known as One Person One Vote (1P1V). 1P1V had
several flaws from the get-go. First, it begged the question of how to deal
with Somaliland, as delegates are unable to visit Somaliland, let alone
represent them in 1P1V. The next hurdle was how to register voters without a
credible census count. Above all else, the issue of security was most
prominent, with the government unable to secure voting sites. Farmaajo
exploited these shortcomings and chose not to address security and voter
registration. As the process wore on, U.S. and EU inaction emboldened Farmaajo
to chip away further at democratic norms. He enlisted the current UN Somalia
special representative James Swan and his ally, African Union special
representative Ambassador Francisco Madeira to help do his bidding. Madeira was
viewed as Farmaajo’s right-hand man, and he was instrumental in dismantling
Somalia’s democratic and security institutions by expediting Somalia’s
withdrawal from African Union Transition Mission (ATMIS) and creating a
security vacuum.
Safeguarding
Somalia’s Last Mile
On April 18 the terrorist group al-Shabab claimed
responsibility for shelling Somalia's parliament while it was working to set a date
for the election of both house speakers and their deputies. This latest attack
came one day after a member of the Federal Electoral Commission (FEIT) was
attacked by a landmine blast. Similarly, on April 27, Somalia's police
commander and the director of the National Intelligence Agency were accused of
attempted assassination along with preventing the newly elected members of
parliament from accessing the election venue.
Along with widespread fears regarding physical safety, there
is also concern about a peaceful transfer of power. Since Farmaajo came to
power, he has eroded two crucial pillars in Somalia’s state-building: security
and a broad political consensus. In order to protect against political violence
and election tampering, the United States and the EU should impose severe
sanctions on Farmaajo and his allies. For example, freezing Farmaajo’s assets
(and the assets of his allies), revoking his EU and U.S. citizenship, and
imposing visa restrictions are vital first steps. It goes without saying that
it is crucial to have a secure environment where parliamentarians are able to
vote without fear. To secure the election process, the United States and EU
must help move election committees, presidential candidates, and parliament
members to secure areas—such as Halane, where Somalia’s international partners
are currently staying—until a new president is elected. The United States and
EU can also assist Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble by providing additional
security measures, such as incorporating Somali, U.S., and British special
forces into election security.
For Somalia, a post-civil war country where there is strong
precedence of political violence and destruction, it is critical to secure the
political process to ensure that Somalia avoids a repeat of past failures.
Guled Ahmed is a
Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute.