Thursday November 3, 2022
By Kit Gillet
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shakes hands with Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Iran on September 7, 2018. Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images
When Russia backed down earlier this week over its threats to block grain shipments out of Ukraine, it was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who was among the first to break the news.
Speaking to Turkey's parliament, Erdogan said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had informed his Turkish counterpart that the deal would resume shortly.
Russian state news agency TASS later reported the agreement came about through the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey.
As Russia grows more isolated, both diplomatically and economically, Turkey's role is becoming increasingly important.
Throughout the conflict the country has walked a thin line. It has declined to sanction Russia, and has given Russia's sanctioned oligarchs safe harbor, even as it has condemned the war.
In September Erdoğan, who has had his own tensions with leaders in Europe and Washington, told PBS News Hour that Russia should not just retreat from the territory taken since February 24, but that it should also "return Crimea to its rightful owners."
"The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine," he added.
Even so, Turkey is one of the few countries that seems to be able to get both sides to the table, with Erdoğan increasingly positioning himself as a key regional player in discussions between Russia and Ukraine.
The original grain export deal had been brokered by Turkey, along with the United Nations, with the aim of averting a major global hunger crisis, with Russia and Ukraine the world's biggest grain exporters.
Erdoğan also played an important role in a prisoner exchange in which Russia released Ukrainian commanders who had operated from the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol. These were individuals that Moscow had previously threatened to put before a military tribunal and possibly execute.
And he hosted preliminary peace talks between the countries in Istanbul in March, which failed to go anywhere.
At home, Erdoğan faces a more challenging time, heading into an election year with strong economic headwind and one of the highest rates of inflation in the world. Still, on the international stage this latest development could lead to the West relying more and more on Turkey's influence in the months ahead.
After this latest development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally thanked Erdoğan for "his active participation in preserving the grain deal, for his steadfast support of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine".
Later in the day, Erdogan told Turkish broadcaster ATV that he had discussed with Zelenskyy sending grains to African countries, and that Russian President Vladimir Putin had proposed to him sending grain to countries like Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan first, given the situation on the ground there.
Those who have watched developments in recent months are increasingly aware of Erdoğan's growing role and influence.
"[I] mentioned that Ankara [Turkey's capital] could have a final say here but didn't expect them to have so much influence on Putin," Andrei Sizov, the head of SovEcon, an agricultural markets research firm, wrote on Twitter on Wednesday. "Really wonder what Erdoğan's secret is."