By Simon Marks and Mohamed Sheikh Nor
Sunday August 18, 2024
Turkey, seeking to extend its influence in Africa and strengthen energy security, will send the 86-meter long research vessel Oruc Reis to explore offshore oil blocks belonging to Somalia next month.
The move, confirmed by Mohamed Hashi, director of Somalia’s petroleum ministry, could help diversify Turkey’s crude supply and is part of Ankara’s steady quest to boost ties in a region where China, Russia, Gulf states and the West also vie for sway.
Drawn by the continent’s mineral wealth and growing populations that could drive a new wave of economic growth, the focus makes a lot of sense for the county as it flexes its international clout.
“Africa is interesting for Turkey because it’s a point where it can experiment with all its newfound activist foreign policy tools and objectives,” said Batu Coşkun, an Ankara-based research fellow at the Libyan Sadeq Institute think tank.
“It’s soft power on the one hand, such as aid, education and Turkish language centers. And trade and economic relations on the other hand,” he said.
Nowhere is this demonstrated better than Somalia where Turkey operates its largest overseas military base and Turkish companies manage the capital’s port and airport.
Baykar, the Turkish drone company run by the son-in-law of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Selcuk Bayraktar, has supplied Somalia with an unknown number of its TB2 model, expanding Somalia’s offensive against the Islamist group al-Shabaab.
Power Play
And earlier this year, the Turkish parliament approved a motion from Erdogan to send navy support to Somali waters amid an increase in piracy stemming from insecurity on the Red Sea linked to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants.
“For Turkey, Somalia offers a geo-strategic location to advance its influence in the Horn of Africa and Indian Ocean arenas,” said Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst for East Africa for the International Crisis Group. “The engagement with Somalia has served both a test case and a stepping stone for Turkey’s overall strategy to deepen diplomatic, commercial and security ties across the African continent.”
Ever since famine decimated Somalia’s population in 2011, Turkey has thrown its weight behind the impoverished nation, which has been synonymous with conflict and suffering since a decades-long civil war broke out in 1991.
Today, young Somalis can attend a state-backed Turkish school run by the Maarif Foundation in Hargeisa and Mogadishu. Aid in the past decade was more than $1 billion, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and the country’s consumer goods from medicines to garments are ubiquitous throughout the capital.
“Our connection with Turkey is rooted in centuries of shared Islamic culture. Their support has been transformative,” said Mohamed Osman, an 18-year-old student at the Maarif Foundation school in Mogadishu. Once a run-down shelter for internally displaced people, the school has been refurbished into modern, computer-equipped classrooms.
Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, Somalia’s defence minister, speaks fluent Turkish and graduated from a university in Ankara.
Since 1992, more than 1,000 Somali students have received scholarships to Turkish universities and visa restrictions for Somalis visiting Turkey have been minimal when compared with other African nations.
Broader Strategy
Turkey’s inroads into Somalia are part of a wider policy in Africa. Exports to the continent were $28.6 billion in 2023, down from $30.6 billion in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, with the lion’s share going to Egypt, Morocco, South Africa and Nigeria.
Increasingly, Ankara’s dealings with African nations are combining cooperation in the fields of intelligence and defense with deals in the mining and energy sectors.
Earlier this year, a delegation led by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Niger’s capital Niamey and signed a host of deals after the nation’s military government kicked out French troops and ordered the US to close its military base.
Niger is the world’s seventh biggest producer of uranium. The Turkish mining company MTA is already looking for gold in the country and has also held talks with Algeria, the Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe in the past three months.
Turkey has signed similar agreements with Algeria where the state energy company, Turkish Petroleum, has said it will look for oil and gas. Afro Turk SA has made efforts to enter Burkina Faso’s gold market and Turkish Airlines now flies to some of the most remote corners of the continent.
TB2 drones from Baykar have been sold to at least 11 African countries, according to data compiled by PAX, a Dutch organization seeking to foster peaceful societies.
Other seeds of influence include SADAT, a private Turkish military contractor, which has sent Syrian personnel to the Sahel region to buttress the military junta in Niger, according to the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights.
Its chief executive, Melih Tanriverdi, told Bloomberg in a written response to questions that his company was keen to do business in Africa but denied its presence in Niger.
Such inroads are made easier by the centralized leadership style of Erdogan, according to Coşkun, the analyst, who noted the lack of export controls on Turkish military products.
“If Erdogan signs off on the deal it simply goes through,” he said. “It’s not like the US congress which scrutinizes every sale.”
Risky Business?
Turkey’s quest for influence in Africa — and particularly Somalia — is not without risks.
Somalia is currently at loggerheads with Ethiopia — another staunch partner of Turkey — over Addis Ababa’s decision to recognize the sovereignty of the breakaway state of Somaliland in return for a naval base and port access in the coastal town of Berbera.
Ankara is currently mediating talks between Ethiopia and Somalia on how to resolve the dispute, a key foreign-policy objective for Ankara if it is to start exploiting oil reserves in the region. That drew a tart complain from Somaliland on Tuesday, which accused it of interference.
“For Turkey the best scenario is coming to an agreement, with Ankara emerging as a mediator and Turkey cementing its role on the political front in East Africa,” said Coşkun. “Turkey does not want clashes when it starts exploring hydrocarbons.”
But the upside should it broker a deal between the two, and tap the oil that lies below Somalia’s seabed, could be huge.
Turkey has long sought to reduce its dependence on energy imports from Russia and Iran, successfully increasing imports from the US, Algeria, Egypt, and Azerbaijan.
“Exploring oil in Somalia’s offshore fields and elsewhere would contribute to Ankara’s diversification strategy, grow Turkey’s energy business, and expand regional presence of Turkish companies,” said Ali Bakir, an assistant professor at Qatar University and a former Qatari diplomat in Turkey.
--With assistance from Patrick Sykes.