Sam Cabral
Tuesday November 5, 2024
American voters go to the polls on 5 November to choose their next president.
US election results have sometimes been declared within hours of the polls closing, but this year's tight contest could mean a longer wait.
When is the 2024 presidential election result expected?
In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning. This time, the knife-edge race in many states could mean media outlets wait longer before projecting who has won.
Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.
Narrow victories could also mean recounts. In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, for example, a state-wide recount would be required if there’s a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points.
Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management, by Republicans.
Other scenarios that could cause delays include any election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations.
On the other hand, vote-counting has sped up in some areas, including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.
When have previous presidential election results been announced?The 2020 election took place on Tuesday 3 November. However, US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until late morning on Saturday 7 November, after the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.
In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.
In 2016, when Trump won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.
In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.
However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception.
The vote was held on 7 November, but the two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida and the race was not decided until 12 December. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state's recount process, which kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.
What are the key states to watch in 2024?
Across the country, the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening and the last polls will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.
But this race is expected to come down to results from seven swing states. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Polls close at different times in different regions. State-specific rules could prolong counting in some states, while other states may report partial figures moments after the last in-person vote is cast. Also, some absentee and mail-in ballots, including votes by members of the military and Americans living overseas, are normally among the last to be counted.
Georgia - Polls close in the Peach State at 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT). Early and mail-in ballots will be counted first, ahead of in-person votes. Georgia's top election official estimates that about 75% of votes will be counted within the first two hours, with a full tally possible expected by later in the night.
North Carolina - Polls close thirty minutes after Georgia. North Carolina's results are expected to be announced before the end of the night, however, complications may arise in areas that were hit by a hurricane in September.
Pennsylvania - Voting ends at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) in the Keystone State - the crown jewel of all the swing states in this election cycle. Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania does not allow counting to begin until the morning of the election, leading to an expected delay in results. Experts agree that it may take at least 24 hours before enough votes are counted for a winner to emerge.
Michigan - Voting concludes at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT) in the Wolverine State. Michigan allows officials to begin counting votes one week before election day, but they are not allowed to reveal the results until these polls shut. Michigan's top election official has said that a result should not be expected until the "end of the day" on Wednesday.
Wisconsin - Results should come in shortly after polls close at 21:00 EST for smaller counties. However, it often takes longer for major populations centres to tabulate votes, leading experts to predict that the state won't have a result until at least Wednesday.
Arizona - Initial results could come as early as 22:00 EST (03:00 GMT), however, they won't paint a complete picture. The state's largest county says not to expect results until early Wednesday morning. On top of that, postal ballots dropped off on election day could take up to 13 days to count, according to officials in Maricopa County, the largest district in the state.
Nevada - Votes here could also take days to count, because the state allows mail-in ballots to qualify as long as they were sent on election day and arrive no later than 9 November.
How does the vote-counting work?
Typically, the votes cast on election day are tallied first, followed by early and mail ballots, those that have been challenged, and then overseas and military ballots.
Local election officials - sometimes appointed, sometimes elected - verify, process and count individual votes, in a process known as canvassing.
Verifying ballots includes comparing the number cast with the number of active voters; removing, unfolding and examining every single ballot for tears, stains or other damage; and documenting and investigating any inconsistencies.
Counting ballots involves feeding each one into electronic scanners that tabulate their results. Some circumstances require manual counts or double-checked tallies.
Every state and locality has rigorous rules about who can participate in the canvass, the order in which votes are processed and which parts are open to the public, including how partisan observers can monitor and intervene in vote-counting.
What happens if the presidential election results are challenged?
Once every valid vote has been included in the final results, a process known as the electoral college comes into play.
In each state a varying number of electoral college votes can be won, and it is securing these – and not just the backing of voters themselves – that ultimately wins the presidency.
Generally, states award all of their electoral college votes to whoever wins the popular vote and this is confirmed after meetings on 17 December.
The new US Congress then meets on 6 January to count the electoral college votes and confirm the new president.
After the 2020 election, Trump refused to concede and rallied supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress was meeting to certify Biden's victory.
He urged his Vice-President, Mike Pence, to reject the results - but Pence refused.
Even after the riot was cleared and members of Congress regrouped, 147 Republicans voted unsuccessfully to overturn Trump's loss.
Electoral reforms since then have made it harder for lawmakers to object to certified results sent to them from individual states. They have also clarified that the vice-president has no power to unilaterally reject electoral votes.
Nevertheless, election watchers expect that efforts to delay certification of the 2024 vote could take place at the local and state level.
Trump, his running mate JD Vance and top Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have refused on several occasions to state unequivocally that they will accept the results if he loses.
When is the presidential inauguration?
The president-elect will begin their term in office after being inaugurated on Monday, 20 January 2025, in the grounds of the US Capitol complex.
It will be the 60th presidential inauguration in US history.
The event will see the new president sworn in on a pledge to uphold the Constitution and then deliver their inaugural address.