by Dekow Diriye
Saturday February 26, 2022
Somalia
is about to finalize the most corrupt, most controversial, and most rigged legislative
elections in the country's history. In fact, this election–or, rather,
"selection"--process has a chance of winning or entering into the
Guinness Book of Records as the most fraudulent process ever conducted and
recorded in history. The so-called election processes have been mired by
intimidation, coercion, bribery, assassination of political aspirants, and the
prevention of potential opposing candidates from registering and contesting for
a seat. Once this fraudulent process is concluded in the coming weeks, the
momentum will shift into electing the Speakers of both Houses and the
President. And there is an excellent chance that Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed
Farmajo could still remain in the Villa- thanks to the unwavering support of
his puppets and sycophant regional foremen who has done all necessary dirty
work to send most inexperienced, sycophants and social media trolls into the
legislative chambers.
It' is also noteworthy
to mention that Farmajo has a hidden agreement with his former boss, Sheik
Sharif. While both parties remained tight-lipped about this agreement, insiders
reported that such an agreement exists. It said the deal was signed late last
year with the understanding that each candidate would support the other should
his presidential prospect diminish. The Owner of the Government (Fahad Yassin),
as Somalis refer to, signed on behalf of Farmajo and while a state minister
from Himilo Qaran signed on behalf of Sheikh Sharif. We don't know much about
the agreement, but we know one thing for sure: Sharif will eventually get the
short end of the stick.
There is also
speculation of possible political marriage between Farmajo and his former Prime
Minister-Hassan Ali Kheyre. All these collaborations and forces, not to mention
the infinite dark money from Qatar, will make Farmajo a very viable candidate
in the upcoming presidential election. So, what will happen if Farmajo is
re-elected, or he rigs the presidential election just like he rigged the
parliamentarian process? In this article, I will examine, analyze, and explore
what the next four-plus years will look like for Somalis and the State building
processes, should Farmajo remain in the Villa. I will base my analysis on
anecdotal information from the Villa, my observation by studying the political
trend and behavior of Farmajo for the past five long and exhausting years.
Right now, Farmajo’ s
biggest nightmare for the past year was his Prime Minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble. To remove
Roble from the picture, Farmajo will not waste time appointing an incompetent
Prime Minister. Based on his previous appointment record, Farmajo is
intimidated by competent leaders who would add value to the State-building
process. He prefers someone with less capacity that can be micromanaged with
zero resistance. Such an appointment will allow him to usurp Premier’s roles
and responsibilities and create a central command.
The primary challenge
faced by the Somali people is the continuous threat and violence from a
terrorist organization like Al-Shabab. While AMISOM (African Mission in
Somalia) and the weak Federal government have gained some new territories from
Al-Shabab militants during the previous administrations, Farmajo ignored
pursuing it. In fact, his administration lost territories pacified from Al-Shabab
by the previous administrations. If elected, Farmajo would not wage war against
Al-Shabab or try to address the widespread insecurity that threatens the
legitimacy and existence of the federal government. Why? Because Farmajo has a
bigger fish to fry. He seeks to subdue his political opponents, especially
those in Mogadishu and unfavorable regional leaders in Jubbaland and Puntland.
Let's start with
Jubbaland. After appointing a PM, Farmajo's first order of operation is to
eliminate Ahmed Madobe and dismantle the current Jubbaland Administration.
First, there is no love lost between the two men. In addition to the
personality conflict and mutual hate for each other, clan supremacism, rivalry,
Farmajo’s desire to bring this administration under his control will fuel and
exacerbate existing tensions. Farmajo and his cronies have already developed
the strategy to dismantle the clan-run administration of Jubbaland. The idea is
to capture Bu'aale, the capital of the current Jubbaland, and form a parallel administration.
This will allow Farmajo to expand his authority significantly and isolate
Jubbaland State President Ahmed Madobe in the port city of Kismayo.
Pacifying Al-Shabab
from the enormous landmass between Bu'aale and Kismayo with rookie infantry
would be very costly. Hence, Farmajo could impose brutal economic sanctions
such as banning flights to and from Kismayo and commercial vessels. This
economic chokehold, and subsequent inflation will weaken Madobe's military
power and easily allow his allies to turn against him, essentially when the
unlimited dark money from Qatar is being disbursed to bribe his supporters and
clan members. Most Somalis consider Madobe as a traitor who the Kenyan
government installed to advance their interests. It's noteworthy to mention
that Farmajo and his team have perfected media manipulation, disseminating fake
news, and trolling on social media. Madobe doesn’t enjoy much popularity
outside his clan and has alienated most of the tribes in this region. Hence,
Farmajo and his trolls will explore and exploit these deep-seated grievances to
their advantage. Once a parallel administration is established under the
pretext of “broad-based, multi-ethnic” administration is formed in Jubbaland,
Madobe is cut off from the political arena. It will be a matter of time before
Kismayo falls into the hands of the central government. With the support of the
Ethiopian military, Modabe's days in Kismayu will be numbered.
The second order of
operation is to create political unrest in Puntland. Farmajo and his allies
from the region have already penetrated one of the most cohesive
administrations in the country. There are multiple scenarios to execute this
plan. The first initiative is to enforce and fuel the current tension in the
commercial city of Bosaso. Giving unlimited military and monetary support to
pro-Farmajo groups could quickly eject leaders of the Puntland Administration
from the city. Losing the economic hub of the administration will be very
costly for any leader in Puntland. Farmajo and his allies will not shy away
from sending recently trained military and paramilitary personnel to enforce
and support their allies and eventually take over the whole city, just like
they did in Dhusamareb. For both Bosaso and Kismayo, the Villa could easily
increase its revenue to offset any deficit resulting from aid cuts.
In addition, Farmajo could quickly put
thousands of additional military personnel in Galkayo. Having a significant
military presence in Galkayo or moving SNA into combat ready position will
pressure Deni or whoever his successor becomes. If and when Bosaso falls into
the central government's command, the existence of Puntland administration with
any bargaining power is over. If Farmajo succeeds in capturing and taking over
Bosaso and Galkayo, the Puntland Administration will be dwarfed into one
city-Garowe. Mobilizing the largest nationalist, mostly youth from this region,
will send shockwaves throughout the administration. Interestingly, the current
administration has the power to package stupidity and lack of regard for the
constitution as patriotism.
For Somaliland,
immediate military intervention is very unlikely. However, the self-declared
administration will face one of the most vicious fights in the international
arena. The goal will be to isolate Somaliland from the rest of the world and
diminish its presence in the region. Companies and businesses in this region
will go through some arduous bureaucratic processes. If you think this is
unlikely, let me refresh your memory on what happened in 2019 when Farmajo put
excessive pressure and economic strangulation on Somaliland traders: In one
instance, the Saudi government refused to offload a cargo ship from Somaliland
because of an order from the Villa. If Farmajo could engineer such painful
economic strangulation during his infancy in the Villa, think about what he is
capable of doing now that he feels politically more mature. Another possible
scenario is to mobilize an uprising in Las Anod and arm pro-Farmajo forces. If
these forces managed to gain ground, the Villa would deploy military personnel
to take over the City of Las Anod. The Villa could also create an uprising in
Awdal. Unlike Las Anod, political unrest in Awdal wouldn't necessarily lead to
military confrontation but would put Hargeisa under intense pressure. This
autonomous region's legitimacy and bargaining power would be significantly
compromised if this happens. Somaliland would also have less bargaining power
or any bragging rights, and its hope for self-determination would vanish
overnight.
For Mogadishu, the
economic blockage will probably be quadrupled in the name of security, and
taxation will be doubled to offset any aid cut. The city has been under
lockdown long before the COVID-19 pandemic breakout. Diminishing the economic
vibrancy and entrepreneurial spirit will continue as long as the city and its
residents are seen as a threat to Farmajo’s desire to occupy the office of the
presidency.
In addition to the siege, the Halane Compound
within Mogadishu could face significant changes. The Halane Compound, which
houses foreign dignitaries and international organizations such as the United
Nations and AMISOM, is often seen as an independent city within the city. The
rapport between these foreign dignitaries esp. those from the western world and
the Villa deteriorated since Farmajo attempted to derail the election process
in hopes of getting a term extension. Hence, Farmajo will require all embassies
to relocate to their old offices in a payback manner. Farmajo sees the Halane
Group as a wolf-pack, and he believes scattering them through the city will
minimize their ability to conspire against his initiative. The evacuation will
occur under the pretext of saving the airport's public land, and such narrative
will allow him to wear another heroic badge.
Finally, to remain in
office for the foreseeable future, Farmajo will change the country's
constitution for several reasons. The goal will be to adopt a constitution that
dismantles federal systems or diminishes their influence and empowers or
attempts to create a unitary State. It's noteworthy to mention that many
Somalis, especially the older generation that grew up under the military
dictator, and younger generation that have grown up under warlords who have not seen justice administered to the perpetrators of
crimes, reminisce about a powerful man rather than a powerful
institution. Changing the constitution will allow Farmajo to increase or
eliminate term limits.
In summation, through
his behaviors for the past five years, Farmajo depicted he doesn't believe in a
win-win situation, political compromise, or reconciliation. He believes in a
winner-takes-all approach to governance. Somalia needs a “servant leader” who
will put the country and people first. A leader that will respect the rule of
law and establish and empower an independent judiciary that has the capacity to
address any legal battle. Unfortunately, Farmajo sees nobility in being
superior to his fellow countrymen and indeed to his political opponent through
the use of force.
Therefore, I believe Farmajo
is completely unhinged and his desire to conquer and oppress political
dissidents, opposition leaders, journalist, and his total disregard to the rule
of law, constitutionally guaranteed human right and his desire to destroy
Somali’s pursuit of liberal democracy and his attempts to construct autocratic
State through the support of Qatar, Eritrea and Ethiopia is quite alarming. In
a continent were fascism and militaristic movement is gaining momentum, his
authoritarianism could receive cordial reception and support from autocratic
and powerful regimes such as Russia and China who are
competing not only to influence the region but also hoping to shape a
long-lasting reform that will benefit their long term geostrategic and
geopolitical goals. And I am afraid another term under his control will
derail and disassemble the state-building process.
Dekow Diriye Tweets
@Diriye100
Email: [email protected]