By Mohamed Baldho
Wednesday October 19, 2022
Government of the people, by the people and for the people" (Lincoln, 1863). The word democracy
comes from the Greek words "demos," meaning people, and
"kratos" meaning power; so, democracy is the will and the power of
the people. If you rule them against their will, you're taking away their
fundamental rights and self-governing practices. Democracy allows citizens to
choose representatives and replace them at their choice. Why this democracy? It
helps create a secure, stable, and prosperous nation. It gives freedom and
safeguards the dignity and rights of the people.
My previous article titled "A Dream come True"
articulated the democratization process of Puntland and the progress made. Since
then, were there any substantial steps made? This article will explain why the
process stalled, who is responsible and why it stagnated.
President Deni appointed TPEC members in August 2019.
In a speech, Mr. Deni offered full support to ensure the smooth implementation
of the process. He forcefully criticized the indirect election system and
reaffirmed the need to move Puntland beyond clan-based politics. Was he really
so sincere? This is not the first time Puntland has tried to implement the
democratization process; two previous administrations failed to hold IPIV elections
due to conflict of interest and lack of commitment.
President Farole tried but made fatal political
mistakes after politicizing the process. "You can't have your cake and eat
it too." His successor, President Gas, got the opportunity to correct the mistakes
but failed too.
The hopes were high! Many believed the current
administration would at least hold council elections chiefly for two reasons:
The early start of the process and the lessons learnt from the previous
attempts.
TPEC began its work immediately, holding its first
meeting on 25 August 2019 and electing its chairman, deputy, and committee
speaker. They began working diligently. They finalized essential laws,
technical procedures, and prerequisite conditions for future associations. They
thoroughly checked the registration process, visited significant cities to ascertain
organisations that met the requirements, finally issued certificates, and
officially inaugurated nine political organisations that passed the vetting
process.
With the help of the ministry of interior, they proposed
three districts as an early election exercise to test their abilities to
conduct one-person-one-vote elections and also learn foreseeable future
irregularities. This process was widely hailed as a step forward and attracted
local and international support. The commission received funds and technical
and moral support from the donor community and international partners.
TPEC has conducted voter registrations in three
districts, often working at night. They finally released the list of the three
districts' voters and set a timeline for Puntland's first universal suffrage
polls. TPEC has shown firm commitment, professionalism, and the leadership
skills required for successful local elections. Their work inspired the general
public, who wanted to move away from clan-based elections to universal
suffrage.
People from the different segments, particularly women
and youth groups, expressed their support and commitment in a way never seen
before. They saw the process as a great opportunity that could usher in an era
of genuine representation and accountability. The extent of their support was
profoundly unfathomable. Elderly and frail persons, heavily pregnant women, and
youth groups registered to cast their ballots and celebrated the success.
On 25 October 2021, Puntland set a record and passed
the line, which many of us thought was a point of no return, but,
unfortunately, we were proved wrong!
Immediately after the local elections concluded, the
commission released the election results of the three districts. The next step
required the administration was to organise the swearing-in ceremony of the
elected councillors and facilitate them to select their mayors among themselves.
But, Sadly, the government failed to administer the process on time. The first
swearing-in and mayoral post-election took place in April 2022 and the second
in September 2022, almost one year after the election date.
KAAH, the association of the government, was defeated
in all three districts. This colossal defeat humiliated and disappointed the President
and his political clique. They irresponsibly misused public meagre resources
and lavishly funded their organization. They used government institutions and human
resources. They did everything possible to win the election. The defeat
instigated internal disagreement, disarray, and entanglement among ruling
elites. No one has taken responsibility, but each started to blame the other
for the setback.
The President doubted his close circle allegiances and
now covertly questioned his old guard loyalties. First time, he perceived a challenge
and sensed serious future rivalry was burgeoning. He will soon disgracefully divorce
once staunch allies and now will become his adversaries. Many innocent
loyalists were given the red card and unexpectedly fired because of guilt by
association Even monkeys fall from trees!
A few weeks later, after the conclusion of the
elections, the President fired his police chief, accusing him of incompetence
and clumsiness. But, all the political stakeholders, the observers, and the
general public suggested otherwise and acknowledged his boldness and
professionalism.
In January 2022, both the chairman and the deputy
chairman of TPEC resigned from their leadership positions and the committee
membership, citing existential challenges and disagreements with the government
regarding elections management and implementation.
Instead of proclaiming the process, expediting it, and
restoring people's hope, Deni Capitulated himself to Villa Somalia race, which
he later lost to Hassan Sh Mohamud. Regrettably, his intention to run gave rise
to more disappointment, disdain, and despondency.
It's a dead end! The process has lost both credibility
and optimism among the wider public and the political elites. There is a
general belief that President Deni intends to extend his mandate to stay in
power.
Undoubtedly, the people are sick and tired of the
clan-based political system. However, the absence of political inclusivity,
lack of active participation, and closing political space cannot be translated
to a healthy democracy but would further impede creativity, hinder social
cohesion and create a culture of mediocrity.
What are the Challenges?
Fundamental principles of any democratic transition
are not only missing, but it's not even in the books of the President. For him,
it's a matter of winning or losing everything. His plans are impractical,
inappropriate, and unattainable. The following are a few challenges:
· Puntland constitution is still provisional
as a public referendum was not held
· The constitutional court to interpret the
election laws and resolve the disputes, arguably essential for this process,
was not formed. Not only the constitutional court is absent but also the higher
court. Even the President himself suggested that the judicial system of
Puntland needs overhaul, reform, and restructure, which he badly failed to do.
· Vast swathes of Puntland districts are not
under the control of the administration. Almost all districts of Sool region
and some districts in East Sanaag are under the control of Somaliland. Muse
Bihi has recently visited Tukaraq, less than 40 miles from Garowe City.
· The general population census was not yet conducted
and is not even in the process.
· The demarcation and delineation of
districts crucial for election ballot posts are not made. Puntland was built
with five regions and the district of Buhoodle; now, the five areas have become
nine, and the districts are 50.
· Civilians are heavily armed, and every clan
has weapons, including small arms, battle wagons, and other military hardware. Like Somaliland, Puntland has not achieved
disarming civilians. Any clan with a grievance can mobilize their clansmen and
fight each other or against the government security forces who are not well-trained
and under-equipped.
· There is no voter registration in the
remaining districts. In the three districts, the voter registration was done on
ad hoc bases which most of the voters have not participated in, either for
political reasons or lack of awareness.
What
are the Recommendations?
In order to restore public trust and credibility of the
election process, the President should come forward and declare the intention
not to extend his term. He should confirm that the traditional 8 January
elections will take place. Nobody would have ever liked to see this happen
again, but the government appears to have found itself inadvertently driving
down a cul-de-sac and miserably failed to take the state out of the mess and
ensure fair, free, and democratic elections. No one would ever believe President
Deni 1P1V election gimmicks as he walked away when everyone was rallying
behind, before he chose the federal seat. Deni is incompetent and devoid of
leadership capacity. He lacks vision, values and leading Puntland into
unchartered territory. Therefore;
· Puntland constitution needs amendments and
overhauls restructuring. Government should appoint independent constitutional
experts to advise possible amendments. However, before ratifying the
constitution and organizing a public referendum, the constitution should mandate
that people elect their President directly.
· The constitutional court, vital for the
interpretation and election laws, should be formed with political consensus if
the government is trusted. The consensus will help people know if this
government is keen on democratization.
· A general population census should be
conducted. Without a proper population census, TPEC and other political
stakeholders cannot precisely identify the number of potential voters. Additionally,
the population census is a statistical snapshot to determine how many citizens
live in a specific area and would help future local councillors to plan and
allocate funds for town plans and public service.
· Government should devise plans to demarcate
the districts, which is very important for election polling sites. Demarcation
and delamination of the districts would help the Interim Election Commission to
know about the voters' distribution and allocation of seats in each district.
· The government should disarm the civilians;
at least, the government should collect heavy weaponry using a mix of
consultation and coercion methods. Civilian disarmament is a prerequisite for
any free and fair elections.
· Genuine voter registration should be
conducted in all remaining districts. Voter registration would help to identify
those who registered to vote and those who have not registered and why. Partial
and ad hoc voter registration can trigger conflict among the communities and stall
the process. Before starting voter registration, a massive awareness campaign and
political outreach must be conducted.
· Political parties shouldn't be restricted to
three. There should be a threshold to measure to form an association. If met
the required threshold, it should be allowed to function. Also, Independent
candidates should be allowed to run for any political office without being conditioned
to register for any particular political party.
Writer's Opinion
As expressed, most Puntlanders want to see that their
beloved state is moving forward. Also, there is no perfect elections and
democratic process, but public participation and ownership are highly required
to ensure that the process is inclusive and locally owned. The historic three
district elections, through the OPOV system, have taught us public readiness,
but only if the government and the stakeholders benefit and expedite the
process. The government and the other stakeholders should agree on a practical
timeline, perhaps, after the election of the new President in January 2024, to
come up with alternative solutions and how these recommendations can be
implemented.
Mohamed Baldho
BA, MPA and MA (IR)
[email protected]