By Ahmed Roble
Monday January 15, 2024
“More than ever, foreign policy is economic policy. The World is competing for resources and global markets.” John Kerry.
Historical Background
The strategic location Somalia lies in the Africa continent makes it in a constant competition and battle against world powers onto whom will influence and ultimately win over, it goes well beyond independence which be referred to the travelers like Vasco Digamma, Ibn Battuta, Egyptian and Indian merchants and beyond. The Union of British Somaliland, and Italian Somaliland have also had a considerable impact on how the foreign policy doctrine will be instituted at a time the world was under huge suffrage on cold war and later whether, the new world order will be led by a capitalistic west, and communist Russia with its allies.
The newly independent Somali leaders lacked a foreign policy agenda toward the world, as the last two consecutive democratic governments of 1960-69 had lost much on choosing the right ally. A great deal of the success of foreign policy depends much on a harmonized, stable internal politics which Somalia as well lacked at that time. The government reshuffles, riots, grievances, and adaptability to self-governance in the post-independence are good example on how the internal politics was rough which at last killed our democratically elected president and ended the era of democracy in Somalia.
The foreign policy of military dictator Siad Barre followed suit and was a disaster as one can refer it to a leaked conversation in October 1976 between the recently deceased diplomatic giant, Mr. Henry Kissinger and the de facto foreign minister of Somalia, Mr. Hussein Kassim. Henry extremely denounces the hypocrisy of Somalia’s portrait on the non-alignment. The miscalculated and subsequent war with Ethiopia and Russia’s back-stabbing had critical consequences that can be sensed until today. As the adage goes, “The best foreign policy is a good internal policy”, the 21 years of military junta was catastrophic as huge part of Somalia’s state failure was the lack of internal policy, democratic governance that is aligned with national foreign policy principles.
Foreign Policy as a tool of State-building & National Security
The political development of the Somali state is becoming progressive after numerous years of reconciliation conferences, peacekeeping missions, federalization, Aid and enormous resistance against terrorism and other security challenges. The country is reforming as debt relief initiatives, institutions buildings and democratization is underway under the watch-dog of the international community. The Somali leaders are forgetting or either failing again on the significance of collaboration with the world not only on the war of terror but on the state-building initiatives such as rule of law, federalization, human rights and deepening the local governance initiatives to foster and establish the state-building from the bottom.
Somalia was always a melting pot under a hot contest due to its strategic geo-location and huge marine resources but the lack of commercializing these resources into economic and political means had always been missing. The Somali leaders over the years also lacked vision with clear strategy and misunderstood that political legitimacy does not come from foreign endorsement or petrodollar but rather, from genuine reconciliation, and democratic elections.
It is with immense need that state-building, including the establishment of functional administrative structures, the completion & implementation of a constitution in all parts of the country and the building of police and military structures are all part of the wider strategy to secure internal legitimacy. In this case, internal legitimacy means the elected body responsible for the state-building agenda should not be confused with democracy.
In the Somali context I believe that elections, proper power-sharing, and democracy must have been owned and are meant to be a reconciliatory initiative which represents the will of the people. The power shift after every 4 year heals the grievances of the long dictatorial and civil-war era the people encountered and very often seeks legitimacy from them, and that Somalia’s democratic culture and governance engages in constructive relation not only with the neighbors but also with other states in Asia and the West which makes it the external legitimacy responsible on the deals of external engagement or in other words foreign policy.
Somalia is an African State in multiple reasons mainly on the geography, but it is also an Arab state as it borders in the Gulf of Aden, it is Asian due to commercial relations and the Indian Ocean, it is again Western due to the major Diasporas living in the West. It is an incredibly diplomatic capital and if materialized in the perfect way with proper leadership mindset can alter and bring better condition than the current.
The Leadership of the federal governments of Somalia in the past two terms haven’t materialized all the above content of intellectual, economic, and geo-political capital and the least of all the Farmajo and HSM’s governments have not stated their views on the foreign policy. The slogan of “Somalia at peace with itself, and with the world” is a bit vague though a great deal of achievements is made which needs a constant sustainability and improvements.
It is tragic that the country also lacks foreign policy cadres, and we witness the activities of the self-proclaimed break-away part of Somalia {Somaliland’s to not only engage in an bogus M-O-U but the deals of Taiwan, Guinea, UAE and potentially beyond which is a deafening failure for our cadres in diplomacy to harmonize, and lobby with a core concept in both the African and international platforms}.
As the year of 2024 unfolded with anguish and parched our sense of ownership after the unfaithful seaport deal in Adis Ababa by the secessionists and Ethiopia, a great effort has to be given the state of our foreign policy as a tool of national security and in this unequal world, it is crucial to either wield strategic alliances, and in this case, the super-power nations of China, Türkiye, the United States and UK would be a great hint of examples.
Port Projects, Oil Merchants, and Foreign Influences
The Military base at Berbera-Port and the deal of UAE’s DP World justifies the magnitude of desire and international interest in the Somali waters both by the Emirates, Ethiopia’s latest bogus agreement and beyond it. As per media sources, The Ethiopian Premier and president Farmajo had also been said that a deal to earn 4 port projects by Ethiopia was followed by a pact among Ethiopia, Eritrean and Somali leaders to make an economic zone in the eastern African countries. The current shady deal of Ethiopia to earn a seaport also shows the intricate failure of both our diplomatic and intelligence agencies to priorly know and counter it. The marine resources in Somalia will need international cooperation through foreign direct investment, resource mobilization and technology from world powers but only by winning the hearts and minds of the public which makes the Turkish engagement as a good example for the rest of all international interests in Somalia.
It is now evident that both the Somali elite & leaders have to keep in the mind that how you trade the geo-strategic location Somalia lies is matter of live & death in this accelerating, disruptive and competitive age. The Challenges of the Indian Ocean between China and India, The rising and ever-increasing military base in Djibouti, UAE’s military, and port investments, and diplomatic proxy war with Qatar in the Somali peninsula and the lack of exit strategy for the African peacekeeping mission in Somalia shows a deeply intertwined and a connected dots in a dark whole beyond African continent.
The Foreign Influences was always in the political context of Somalia as some scholars argue that a hidden international hand had always meddled the Somali affairs while some reach to the extent that no president haven’t succeeded without the assistance of foreign influences including Aden Abdulle, Somali’s first president who was backed by the Italians, and in this 21st century Somali politics a bundle of evidence materials support a great deal about that analogy. It begs nothing more but the question of leaders with national interest and how to shape a Somali initiated, owned and driven diplomatic principles to save this approaching and ever-increasing geopolitical hurdles, and the African, Arab and international influences are more than ever fierce, competitive, and ever-growing with absurd agendas, It demands from our elites, intellectuals and scholars to gather and propagate this danger and provide an alternate solution to begin with the draft, approval and adoption of a solid and foundational foreign policy doctrine. This doctrine which’s based on a One-Somalia policy that safeguards our territorial integrity, sovereignty, and of that both the Somali people and the international system adheres and respects.
I believe that it finally begs no evidence how Somalia with foreign policy/diplomatic doctrine can shape its future and play a significant role in the international platforms, but this comes after assuring that constant and timely elections and democratic governance is a key pillar for the internal politics. Somalia has achieved many milestones the past year and include debt relief, lifting arms embargo and joining the EAC block but no milestone is more important than the nascent democratic institutions built in the face of astonishing constraints.
Ahmed M. Roble
Ahmed Holds an MBA, M.A in Peace Governance & Development. He can be reached at
[email protected].