By Hon Sadik Warfa
Saturday January 20, 2024
In 2023, the Federal Republic of Somalia entered a pivotal period marked by peaceful coexistence among its governmental sectors. During this time, concerted efforts were made to foster social, economic, and political development. Effective governance, with a clear understanding of constitutional boundaries dictating the governments' actions, places us in a more elevated position as we enter 2024.
Indeed, the reconstruction process is often marked by political crises and significant violence, and Somalia is gradually navigating through these challenges with resilience, talent, and abundant natural resources. The unwavering determination of His Excellency President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud is poised to guide the nation towards shaping a brighter future for the Somali people. As the old saying suggests, there is undoubtedly a way where there is a will. The robust and gravelly voice and reassuring manner have played a crucial role in rebuilding the foundations of state institutions, promoting transparency in inter-state relations, and enforcing accountability.
Once labelled a 'Failed state' by President George W. Bush, a term that became synonymous with U.S. policy in Somalia, leading to the country's association with terrorism and gradual isolation. However, we choose to adopt a different narrative. We are no longer a tale defined by violence and state failure; we refuse to succumb to the intimidating threats and tactics of terrorists and armed militias. Instead, we are rewriting our story, and over the past year, we have methodically fought for our place, achieving liberation through self-determination.
The positive developments witnessed, as highlighted in numerous headlines, including the reported airstrike against al-Shabab commanders, the takeover of major cities like Cowsweyne village, Hirshabelle and Galmudug states and Mudug area, the approval of a new IMF arrangement, and the lifting of the arms embargo, all indicate concerted efforts to stabilize the country.
Governance, Security Challenges and Political Stability:
Governance plays a crucial role in determining how societies and organizations are controlled and overseen, and it has significant influence over the policies, laws, and decision-making procedures that impact individuals and communities.
In his inaugural address, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud vowed to liberate the Somali people from al-Shabaab, asserting that military operations against the al-Shabaab will persist until final victory is achieved. Notably, the Somali government has made substantial advancements in state-building and security restoration through military offensives against al-Shabaab. Over 1000 kilometres of territory have been reclaimed from the militia group since August 2022.
Seemingly taking a page from President Woodrow Wilson's commitment to end all wars, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud demonstrates a similar dedication. His strategic approach emphasizes the crucial role of local communities in the fight against terrorism. This is evident in the active involvement of local elders and the use of military support from clan-based militias in central Somalia. This strategy has also contributed to resolving inter-clan conflicts in the country.
While December 2024 may be a few months away, and the president's promise to liberate our people from terrorism may raise eyebrows from different organizations, we, the resilient people of Somalia, have endured and functioned despite numerous challenges and with the assistance of international partnerships, our government, and stabilization efforts, we hold hope for complete liberation.
Joining the EAC:
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud's commitment to joining the East African Community (EAC) held great promise for Somalia, and its fulfilment before the end of 2023 was a significant win. Despite facing rejection in 2016, with South Sudan being admitted amid civil strife and thus disappointing the Somali people, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud's relentless pursuit resulted in Somalia's admission to the EAC. The move will help foster peace and security in the region since now the country has the regional level interventions under the EAC Peace and Security Strategy, with hopes that the Bloc will deploy a regional force similar to the one it sent to the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo last year to provide the much-needed support to the Somali National Army. This is already evident with the meeting of TCCs(Troop Contributing Countries) leaders at State House Entebbe, Uganda, where they agreed to continue supporting Somalia's quest for stability.
Endowed with abundant natural resources and experiencing a surge in rebuilding and reconstruction efforts following the defeat of al-Shabab, Somalia will present a tremendous opportunity for substantial regional investments. This potential extends to its blue economy, infrastructural rehabilitation, and the real estate and construction sectors. The opportunities go beyond employing its citizens; with solid connections to its diaspora, the Middle East, and strategically advantageous location, Somalia stands as a ripe opportunity for economic integration with its neighbouring countries.
Debt relief milestone.
Economically, the country faced severe challenges due to internal conflicts, leading to drought, rising food prices, and falling exports. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud's focus on rebuilding human capital, strengthening institutions, and fostering an environment for inclusive, private-sector-led growth has shown progress. Somalia reached the "completion point" in December 2023, qualifying for a debt relief of $4.5 billion from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Despite economic difficulties, Somalia's fiscal situation has improved thanks to continuous reforms to foster stability and recovery. Domestic revenues, surpassing levels seen before the onset of COVID-19 in 2022, have facilitated a redirection of expenditures toward social programs and intergovernmental grants. A rise in external funding has further supported this positive shift. The ongoing economic governance reforms have strategically positioned the country to progress toward the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Completion Point, marking a substantial milestone in its development.
This economic progress allows the country to benefit from regional networks, enhancing trade with global partners. However, effective governance and measures to prevent future debt are crucial to ensure sustained, inclusive economic growth, especially considering Somalia's dependence on imported goods.
Arms Embargo:
The United Nations Security Council's decision to lift the arms embargo on Somalia signifies the removal of the final restrictions on weapons deliveries to Somalia's government and security forces. This historic move, occurring more than 30 years after the imposition of the embargo, is pivotal for Somalia's ongoing efforts to combat extremist groups like al-Shabab.
The UN Security Council's action confirms that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has fulfilled his three commitments:
• joining the East African Community (EAC)
• advocating for the lifting of the 1992 embargo
• securing debt relief
This achievement enables Somalia to negotiate lending terms with international financial institutions.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who pledged to eradicate the Islamist group al-Shabaab by December 2024, sees the UN's decision as a vote of confidence in Somalia's capacity to address security threats effectively. This comes as the Somali government works to enhance the capabilities of the national army, particularly as regional forces under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) prepare to withdraw.
Development strategy
Looking ahead to 2024, as Somalia embarks on the journey to rebuild after three decades of devastating civil strife, the recognition that the scars and tears of war persist long after the last bullet has been fired becomes paramount. Therefore, it is crucial to formulate and strengthen a comprehensive development strategy.
This strategy goes beyond the singular focus on counterterrorism efforts; it encompasses the holistic rebuilding of the nation—physically, economically, and with a keen focus on the Somali people's health and well-being.
The top 2024 Agenda should be the Finalization of the Constitutional Review Process. Following the adoption of the Somali Provisional Constitution in 2012, setbacks have prolonged the intended four-year comprehensive constitutional review. The current government must be committed to finalizing the review and achieving preliminary consensus on crucial topics. However, unresolved issues persist, requiring broad consensus for constitutional amendments' adoption by the Somali Federal Parliament and approval in a referendum. The initial timeline was disrupted due to the delayed establishment of review institutions of the 10th parliament, leading to a deferral of the review to the 11th parliament of the Somali Federal Parliament. Despite challenges, the present government's improved relationships with Parliament and most Member States increase the likelihood of successfully concluding the constitution within its mandate, set to end in April 2026. This goal, if attainable with a sustained commitment to productive dialogue and resolution of remaining contentious matters, will be an outstanding achievement that will lead to an inclusive electoral process, democratic leadership and hence growth in the municipalities and inclusivity of women and youths' factors that will cater not only to political leaders but also the citizens at the grassroots.
Political stability and cooperation among different factions will be essential for long-term progress. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud's firm stance against a controversial Deal between the Ethiopian government and the Somaliland administration that secures Ethiopia access to the Red Sea demonstrates his commitment to territorial integrity and national sovereignty. However, much dialogue between the federal government of Somalia and the Somaliland administration is overdue for the unity of the Federal Republic of Somalia. Ethiopia has proven to be an enemy of progress by interfering with Somalia's internal affairs.
Given that over 70% of Somalia's population comprises youths, their engagement, inclusion, and participation can be a significant source of strength for our country. The prevalent issue of high youth unemployment highlights the urgent need to support our youth, who are pivotal in driving the country's economic growth. Addressing the existing skills gap is a crucial aspect of this effort, and investing in vocational training programs would be an ideal step. The recent accession to the East African Community (EAC) also presents a substantial employment opportunity for our youths. The organization must foster a space for local employment, ensuring that the benefits of this integration extend to the youth population.
In East Africa, communities such as Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya often have had to bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. In Somalia, for instance, scarce rainfall, drought, and failed crops have led to food shortages, water scarcity, and livestock losses, intensifying the population's vulnerability. Empowering local communities is a cornerstone of sustainable and impactful climate action. Their resilience, traditional knowledge, and ability to adapt and often bear the brunt of climate-related challenges, including extreme weather events, changing agricultural patterns, and environmental degradation, are invaluable assets that must be recognized and harnessed. This entails creating platforms for community involvement in decision-making processes, integrating local knowledge into climate policies, and initiating community-focused initiatives. Failure to empower communities obstructs their advancement, pushing millions into a cycle of vulnerability and jeopardizing the attainment of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Africa.
Another key issue affecting governance is the judiciary. While President Mohamoud is making improvements, finalizing the constitution, especially focusing on judicial independence, is vital. Establishing a robust and independent judiciary is essential for implementing the rule of law, protecting rights, resolving disputes, enhancing accountability, and building trust between the people and the government.
In leaving a lasting legacy, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud should prioritize the establishment of a judiciary that effectively checks and balances the legislative and executive branches. This move can restore confidence, combat terrorism, and pave the way for Somalia's peaceful and prosperous future.
The writer, Hon Sadik Warfa, is a former Minister of Labour of the Federal Republic of Somalia and Represented Mudug Constituency Federal Parliament 2016-2022.